Beyond The Drawing Board: Bridging The Bankability Gap In African Oil Refining

Yaounde, Cameroon December 18, 2025: In the golden twilight of a Lagos evening, the silhouette of the Dangote Refinery stands as a titan against the skyline - a steel-and-glass promise of a continent finally taking the wheel of its own industrial destiny. For decades, Africa has lived through a costly irony: exporting its crude soul to foreign shores only to buy it back in refined drops at a premium.
But as the calendar turns to 2025, a new narrative is being written. It is a story not just of "potential," but of "predictability."

The Great Demographic Shift
The numbers are staggering. By 2050, one in every four humans will call Africa home. This is not just a statistic; it is a demand. To power this future, Africa’s crude oil consumption is set to more than double - from 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024 to 4.5 million by 2050.
“Investors do not chase potential - they chase predictability,” says Anibor Kragha, Executive Secretary of the African Refiners and Distributors Association, ARDA. Africa, he argues, is finally building the foundations for that predictability.

Cracking The Bankability Code
Despite the clear demand, the road to a modernized downstream sector - the refineries, pipelines, and depots - has been blocked by a "bankability gap." Inconsistent policies and shallow ports that add up to $30 per tonne to fuel costs have long kept global capital at bay, Anibor Kragha argues.
The most "hidden" barrier? Sulphur. Across 54 nations, there are 46 different fuel specifications. To fix this, ARDA is championing the AFRI-6 (10 ppm) standard - a move that would synchronize the continent’s markets and unlock regional trade.

A Billion Untapped Markets
The energy story isn't just about massive refineries; it is about the kitchen table. Over one billion Africans still rely on biomass for cooking. This massive unmet demand has positioned Africa as the most attractive LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) market on the planet. ARDA, in partnership with the GLPGP, is now mobilizing a $1 billion LPG Fund to turn this social crisis into a bankable investment opportunity, Anibor Kragha points out.

The Path Forward
According to Anibor Kragha, the blueprint is clear. To turn the "Next Frontier" into a reality, the continent must harmonize its rules, deepen its ports, and prove it can deliver mega-projects on time. As the world watches, Africa is no longer just waiting for investment - it is engineering the conditions to command it.

The Facts, Figures
Anibor Kragha thus posits that Africa’s downstream sector (refining, storage, and distribution) is positioned as a premier investment frontier due to a massive demographic shift and rising energy needs. This is evidenced by the fact that crude oil consumption in Africa is projected to grow from 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024 to 4.5 million by 2050. 
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